No it can’t. Starting wars is much easier than stopping them. The Russian economy and politics nowadays needs a war. And if Ukraine will stop fighting they will search for a new war. That is why Europe is so nervous at the moment about Russia. It might well attack the Baltic states or Moldovia soon after Ukraine stopps fighting. So the EU has no interest in Ukraine losing its war. In that sense it is a proxy war China against EU, with neither China nor EU fully understanding their role.
If Ukraine can say anything without Russian permission, Russia has lost the war. Thus Russia will continue until it will conquer Ukraine or repeat events of 1917
So, this is the evolution of Ukraine into the west / China proxy war that I was worried that it would become back in 2014.
Interesting object lesson in how slow motion disasters unfold.
People in the west in general fail to understand the fundamental cultural underpinnings that guide Chinese (and largely Russian as well) behaviour on the global stage, causing them to badly miscalculate their steps. (I am not claiming to have special insight myself, only to observe the obvious misalignment of perceptions and incentives)
China, in particular, seems to me to be tightly wedged between several acute pressures in this situation.
> People in the west in general fail to understand the fundamental cultural underpinnings that guide Chinese (and largely Russian as well) behaviour on the global stage, causing them to badly miscalculate their steps.
I agree invading Ukraine in 2022 was extreme miscalculation on Russian side. West is now only pouring a little bit of money and weapons just to keep that Ukrainian potato too hot to swallow by Russian mouth. Who could have expected that this keeps going for 3 years with Russia losing essentially its all accumulated military inheritance from USSR time to get what? Few fields in Eastern Ukraine? From perspective of so called West, this is an unexpected strategic victory while doing essentially nothing.
Yes, it’s a free lunch from the “western” perspective, unfortunately sponsored by the blood and suffering of Ukrainian men, women, and children. It’s awful, and the incentives of Ukraines allies are to draw the conflict out as long as possible, squeezing the last of the juice from the Russian potato.
I dearly hope that Europe and the American people will be generous and invest heavily in Ukrainian reconstruction, welcome them into NATO, and help them to prosper from the incredible military legacy they are building with the blood of their people.
One thing that seems sure, the west will keep spoon feeding weapons in only as fast as Russian assets are destroyed. Every bullet costs a spoonful of Ukrainian blood, I only hope that the eventual victory will be worthwhile.
> Beijing can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine as this could allow the United States to turn its full attention to China
If that's true, Russia winning the war isn't acceptable to China either. Sadly for Ukraine, I suspect a long war that gradually bleeds Russia dry is the ideal outcome for most of the large players.
china wants the EU to stop funding ukraine, and let russia win the war on their own - this is the most advantageous outcome to china: russia loses military strength doing the fighting, but not enough to collapse, and thus becoming more reliant on china. But still strong enough to be a concern for the west, so that the west cannot focus all their efforts on china.
I don't understand that last part. The US is a big country; it can walk and chew gum at the same time. We're spending some money and attention on Ukraine, but I don't see how it would affect our position on China if we weren't.
I do think that the US is badly mishandling its relationship with China, but it is a deliberate choice, not an oversight.
Looks like a good reason for the President to support Ukraine more, and it looks like he needs a reason.
Russia can stop and proclaim victory to its people any day it wants.
No it can’t. Starting wars is much easier than stopping them. The Russian economy and politics nowadays needs a war. And if Ukraine will stop fighting they will search for a new war. That is why Europe is so nervous at the moment about Russia. It might well attack the Baltic states or Moldovia soon after Ukraine stopps fighting. So the EU has no interest in Ukraine losing its war. In that sense it is a proxy war China against EU, with neither China nor EU fully understanding their role.
The Russian economy needs to stop wasting workers on land mines. The politicians have no issue lying saying they won the war either.
If Russia stops attacking, Russia and Ukraine get to both say they won the war to their own people.
If Ukraine can say anything without Russian permission, Russia has lost the war. Thus Russia will continue until it will conquer Ukraine or repeat events of 1917
Apparently Russia would need 10x the Army to control Ukraine than what they currently have.
They either quit and say they won, or they sign up for a century of IEDs in Moscow. It was stupid to create a failed state that is a direct neighbor.
Ukraine doesn't have much choice in the matter, it is not as if they created Russia, the failed state, but we are where we are.
So, this is the evolution of Ukraine into the west / China proxy war that I was worried that it would become back in 2014.
Interesting object lesson in how slow motion disasters unfold.
People in the west in general fail to understand the fundamental cultural underpinnings that guide Chinese (and largely Russian as well) behaviour on the global stage, causing them to badly miscalculate their steps. (I am not claiming to have special insight myself, only to observe the obvious misalignment of perceptions and incentives)
China, in particular, seems to me to be tightly wedged between several acute pressures in this situation.
> People in the west in general fail to understand the fundamental cultural underpinnings that guide Chinese (and largely Russian as well) behaviour on the global stage, causing them to badly miscalculate their steps.
I agree invading Ukraine in 2022 was extreme miscalculation on Russian side. West is now only pouring a little bit of money and weapons just to keep that Ukrainian potato too hot to swallow by Russian mouth. Who could have expected that this keeps going for 3 years with Russia losing essentially its all accumulated military inheritance from USSR time to get what? Few fields in Eastern Ukraine? From perspective of so called West, this is an unexpected strategic victory while doing essentially nothing.
Yes, it’s a free lunch from the “western” perspective, unfortunately sponsored by the blood and suffering of Ukrainian men, women, and children. It’s awful, and the incentives of Ukraines allies are to draw the conflict out as long as possible, squeezing the last of the juice from the Russian potato.
I dearly hope that Europe and the American people will be generous and invest heavily in Ukrainian reconstruction, welcome them into NATO, and help them to prosper from the incredible military legacy they are building with the blood of their people.
One thing that seems sure, the west will keep spoon feeding weapons in only as fast as Russian assets are destroyed. Every bullet costs a spoonful of Ukrainian blood, I only hope that the eventual victory will be worthwhile.
> Beijing can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine as this could allow the United States to turn its full attention to China
If that's true, Russia winning the war isn't acceptable to China either. Sadly for Ukraine, I suspect a long war that gradually bleeds Russia dry is the ideal outcome for most of the large players.
So China will start funding Russia to prolong the war?
china wants the EU to stop funding ukraine, and let russia win the war on their own - this is the most advantageous outcome to china: russia loses military strength doing the fighting, but not enough to collapse, and thus becoming more reliant on china. But still strong enough to be a concern for the west, so that the west cannot focus all their efforts on china.
I don't understand that last part. The US is a big country; it can walk and chew gum at the same time. We're spending some money and attention on Ukraine, but I don't see how it would affect our position on China if we weren't.
I do think that the US is badly mishandling its relationship with China, but it is a deliberate choice, not an oversight.
What would we be doing if we had more focus?
They've been doing that already in the past few years.
Likely they will increase their support. It’s a very short distance to this becoming a China/NATO proxy war.
It is actually weird, when Russia starts a war only to become a proxy of other block in its own war.
So... if Russia will loose that war then China will do something to Russia ?
Century of humiliation and all that https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unequal_treaties
you see that area of Manchuria, where is now Vladivostok and Khabarovsk? Yep that was China. And they are eager to take it back.