So, this is the evolution of Ukraine into the west / China proxy war that I was worried that it would become back in 2014.
Interesting object lesson in how slow motion disasters unfold.
People in the west in general fail to understand the fundamental cultural underpinnings that guide Chinese (and largely Russian as well) behaviour on the global stage, causing them to badly miscalculate their steps. (I am not claiming to have special insight myself, only to observe the obvious misalignment of perceptions and incentives)
China, in particular, seems to me to be tightly wedged between several acute pressures in this situation.
china wants the EU to stop funding ukraine, and let russia win the war on their own - this is the most advantageous outcome to china: russia loses military strength doing the fighting, but not enough to collapse, and thus becoming more reliant on china. But still strong enough to be a concern for the west, so that the west cannot focus all their efforts on china.
So, this is the evolution of Ukraine into the west / China proxy war that I was worried that it would become back in 2014.
Interesting object lesson in how slow motion disasters unfold.
People in the west in general fail to understand the fundamental cultural underpinnings that guide Chinese (and largely Russian as well) behaviour on the global stage, causing them to badly miscalculate their steps. (I am not claiming to have special insight myself, only to observe the obvious misalignment of perceptions and incentives)
China, in particular, seems to me to be tightly wedged between several acute pressures in this situation.
Looks like a good reason for the President to support Ukraine more, and it looks like he needs a reason.
So... if Russia will loose that war then China will do something to Russia ?
So China will start funding Russia to prolong the war?
china wants the EU to stop funding ukraine, and let russia win the war on their own - this is the most advantageous outcome to china: russia loses military strength doing the fighting, but not enough to collapse, and thus becoming more reliant on china. But still strong enough to be a concern for the west, so that the west cannot focus all their efforts on china.
Likely they will increase their support. It’s a very short distance to this becoming a China/NATO proxy war.
They've been doing that already in the past few years.